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Review of stainless steel and nickel price trend in 2022
In 2022, the price fluctuation of stainless steel and nickel will be far greater than that of carbon steel.
LME nickel extrusion has seriously affected the nickel and stainless steel markets.
In fact, LME nickel price soared by nearly 25000 dollars/metric ton in March.
Shortly afterwards, the rally cooled again and finally bottomed out in July.
In November, the price rebounded, making the market’s expectations for 2023 somewhat uncertain.
01 Nickel price soars
At the beginning of this year, the stainless steel and nickel price indexes rose slightly by 1.8%. As prices rose, buyers began to push up inventory levels. Russia is also surrounding Ukraine in preparation for what appears to be a full-scale invasion. Knowing that this event will have a huge impact on the nickel market, buyers and sellers began to pay close attention to this situation.
In mid January, LME inventory began to plummet. This led to the nickel price index soaring to an 11 year high. Insufficient inventory leads to soaring prices and surcharges.
In March, LME completely suspended nickel trading for several days. Within a few hours, the average price of nickel soared to nearly 50000 dollars per ton. Buyers everywhere panicked and bought as much nickel as possible to save their inventory.
02 Cool down
After the stainless steel and nickel price indexes rose by a staggering 25.1%, the situation began to cool from March to April.
After a historic short squeeze, LME’s nickel trading finally resumed, and the nickel price soared by more than 90% in just a few hours.
By May, prices had begun to fall slightly.
However, LME nickel contract continued to lack liquidity in June.
This undermines price discovery and makes it increasingly difficult to track prices.
In turn, many buyers have encountered the problem of reducing price risk. Nevertheless, prices eventually began to rise.
03 Sudden price weakness
The stainless steel and nickel price index in July was a bit shocking.
The price suddenly weakens and there is no obvious bullish expectation.
Overall, the price decreased by 9.55%.
The nickel price index itself will suffer in a few months.
In fact, it continued to decline in August, down 8.86%.
However, the long-term trend soon began to rise again.
One of the main factors was Indonesia’s announcement that it would levy taxes on nickel pig iron and nickel iron exports.
In fact, in September, prices began to level off.
However, a new problem has emerged: excessive inventory.
In 2022, the import volume of stainless steel cold rolling will continue to grow, reaching the peak from April to June.
After the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel extrusion in March, buyers bought in large quantities.
04 Nickel Price Rebounded
In October, the stainless steel and nickel price indexes rose 3.35%.
This makes the nickel price of nickel LME in the first three months reach about 21000 dollars/metric ton.
In November, nickel and stainless steel began to rebound. However, the supplier’s inventory is still adequate.
In December, prices rose again, and the index rose 7.3%.
This makes the price outlook in the first quarter of 2023 look more optimistic than pessimistic.
Although the current trading volume is stable, the nickel contract is unstable in history.
We have seen this throughout 2022. Therefore, potential buyers should pay close attention to the price forecast to reduce the price risk.
Post Time: 2023-01-06
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